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(It also assumes that state and local governments will transfer to the federal government $6 trillion, which is what they currently are projected to spend on healthcare over the same period.) Slower growth of medical costs over time, based on the experiences of other single-payer systems, such as TaiwanĪs outlined in the previously cited assessment, the Warren plan proposes a $20.5 trillion increase in federal spending from 2020 to 2029 relative to current projections.Expansion of value-based payment models (e.g., bundled-payment programs and ACOs), which the Urban Institute did not assume.Steeper reductions in Medicare payments for prescription drugs as a result of price negotiations by Medicare.Relative to the Urban Institute projection, which is 30% higher than the average of six other analyses of single-payer proposals, the Warren plan assumes the following: However, it is projected to be $7 trillion, or 12% cheaper, than the most recent $59 trillion NHE projection by the Urban Institute, a left-leaning Washington D.C.-based economic and social policy think tank. b Thus, the Warren plan does not promise a material reduction in NHE relative to the federal government’s projections. a According to one expert assessment, over the period of 2020-29, the Warren plan is projected to yield NHE of about $52 trillion, in line with an extrapolation of CMS’s most recent NHE projection, which forecasted average annual NHE growth of 5.2% from 2018 to 2027. As a point of reference, CMS projected NHE of $3.6 trillion in 2018. The Warren plan’s societal cost can be measured in terms of national healthcare expenditures (NHE).
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Closely following these are the impacts of the plan on the health insurance industry and hospitals, respectively. Media coverage and, therefore, the public’s general understanding of the Warren plan, thus far, have focused on the plan’s societal cost (i.e., what the nation as a whole will spend on healthcare over 10 years from 2020 through 2029) and the plan’s federal cost (i.e., the increase to the federal government’s spending over the same period, and how it will be funded). population - without increasing taxes on the middle class “by one penny.” Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) released a long-awaited plan for how she would attempt to fund “Medicare for All” - universal, government-funded healthcare for the entire U.S.